Anthropic Files to Go Public, and Chip Stocks Jump

Anthropic filed to go public, and the beaten-down chip stocks jumped

Anthropic, the AI company behind Claude, filed its registration statement (Form S-1) with the SEC on Monday morning for its proposed initial public offering. It plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT (CNBC).

The filing shows revenue of $16.29 billion for the six months ended June, up from $1.16 billion in the same period a year earlier, a 1,304% increase (CNBC). TradeStation says the offering is expected in mid-November.

Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, as quoted by CNBC:

"The market needed this, just like it needed SpaceX."

He added: "This is a big confidence booster, and I anticipate the demand is going to be there because people have been waiting and talking about this one for a long time."

The chips had the most to gain

Chipmakers are in a bear market, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) roughly 25% below its high (CNBC). On Monday the group bounced:

• iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX): +2.85%
• VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): +2.74%
• Micron: +2.98%
• AMD: +2.80%
• Nvidia: +2.39%
• Broadcom: +2.33%

Micron also had a Bank of America note behind it: analyst Vivek Arya said he is "incrementally more positive" on memory (CNBC).

More AI money

Two other funding headlines "added to the risk-on sentiment," CNBC said: Meta said Monday it plans to raise $95 billion for its AI investments, and Elon Musk said over the weekend that SpaceX closed a $40 billion debt deal for AI chips. Meta's own stock fell 1.88%.

The close: the S&P 500 broke a two-day losing streak

The S&P 500 rose for the first time after losing 1.21% on Thursday and 0.52% on Friday. It opened above Friday's close and never traded below it.

• S&P 500: 7,676.77, up 53.09 points (+0.70%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,169.38, up 214.04 (+0.82%)
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,361.58, up 146.42 (+0.28%)
• Nasdaq 100: 29,273.40 (+1.09%)
• Russell 2000: 2,786.42 (+0.38%)
• VIX (the fear gauge): 18.39, down 1.06 (-5.45%)

The S&P 500 is still 1.82% below its record close of 7,818.93 from October 6, and the Nasdaq Composite is 5.18% below its own October 6 record.

Elsewhere: gold futures rose 0.46% to about $4,026 an ounce, the 10-year Treasury yield held just under 5%, and bitcoin traded near $80,000.

Oil slipped, even after a report that U.S. forces could strike Iran within 96 hours of an order

Brent crude fell about 1% on Monday, to near $115 a barrel, and U.S. crude (WTI) fell nearly 2%, to near $101. On Friday, Brent had hit its highest level since April (CNBC). "A slide in oil prices also helped boost the major averages," CNBC said.

Why oil fell: Yahoo Finance pointed to a visit to Tehran by Saudi Arabia's defense minister. CNBC described a market weighing the threat of more attacks on Saudi energy sites against worries that high prices are eroding demand. Oil is still up about 12% this month, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 282.6 million barrels last week, its lowest level since 1982 (CNBC).

The Iran report

Early Monday, CNN reported, citing two U.S. officials, that American forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran "within 96 hours of receiving" an order from President Trump. The reported targets go beyond radars and launchers to military sites, nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure (Times of Israel and VINnews, summarizing CNN).

CNN also reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu pushed for a joint strike before Israel's election and that Trump did not give a green light. Netanyahu's office called that report "fake news" (Times of Israel). We found no on-record response from the White House or the Pentagon.

The market did not trade it as a new shock: oil fell and stocks rose. Defense stocks did rise, but CNBC tied Lockheed Martin's 5.2% jump to a Morgan Stanley upgrade, not to Iran.

The movers: Tesla, Fair Isaac and a 20% drop in Brazil

Tesla +5.21%, to $391.62. Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight. CNBC said the firm pointed to a possible SpaceX deal, Robotaxi and strength in the core business.

Fair Isaac (FICO) -13.27%, the worst stock in the S&P 500. Wells Fargo cut it to Equal Weight from Overweight and lowered its price target to $735 from $800 (Investing.com). The company also said it would hold its mortgage score price at $10 for lenders in its Preferred Program (Benzinga).

Brazil: the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) fell 19.8%, its worst day since March 16, 2020, after President Lula da Silva won a fourth term, 51.8% to 48.2% over Flavio Bolsonaro (CNBC). Itau Unibanco fell 20.48% and Petrobras 14.07% (Nasdaq.com). Benzinga reported that Brazil's currency, the real, lost more than 10%.

Lockheed Martin +5.16%. Morgan Stanley upgraded it to Overweight and raised its target to $835 from $690, citing a deal to keep producing F-35s (CNBC).

Also moving

• Range Resources up about 18%: EQT agreed to buy it in an all-stock deal (CNBC).
• Mercado Libre -7.81%, the worst stock in the Nasdaq 100.
• Lumentum +8.2%, the S&P 500's best stock: StoneX started coverage at Buy with a $1,200 target (Yahoo Finance).
• Microsoft +1.54%, after announcing voluntary buyouts for roughly 60,000 employees (Yahoo Finance).
• JetBlue down about 10%: the Wall Street Journal reported that senior creditors are working with a restructuring adviser (via CNBC).
• DoorDash -6.1%: the Wall Street Journal reported that it is in talks to buy Instacart (via CNBC).
• Verizon -3.5% after earnings: $1.31 a share against $1.27 expected, and revenue of $34.3 billion against $34.8 billion expected (CNBC).

Last week, investors sold the AI builders and bought cyber defense. On Monday they bought both.

From Tuesday's close (Oct 20) to Friday's close (Oct 23), chip stocks and cybersecurity stocks went opposite ways.

Wednesday to Friday, Oct 21-23

Cybersecurity:

• Zscaler: +18.9%
• CrowdStrike: +13.3%
• Palo Alto Networks: +11.8%
• Fortinet: +5.3%
• Cybersecurity funds: HACK +8.0%, CIBR +5.7%

AI chips:

• Nvidia: -2.6%
• AMD: -3.4%
• Broadcom: -3.8%
• Chip fund SMH: -3.5%
• PHLX Semiconductor index: -4.5%

The sharpest day was the Thursday, Oct 22 sell-off. SMH fell 5.99%, the PHLX Semiconductor index 6.72%, AMD 8.10% and Nvidia 4.40%. Palo Alto rose 2.21% and Zscaler 2.78% that day, while CrowdStrike (-0.58%), Fortinet (-0.61%) and CIBR (-0.31%) dipped only slightly.

What pushed money into defense

• On Wednesday, Oct 21, the NSA warned about a critical PHP web flaw. CNBC quoted the advisory: "If an immediate update is not feasible, it is [recommended] that organizations take the system offline until it can be fully mitigated."
• Friday's jump in cyber stocks was tied to an Evercore ISI survey of security budgets (Yahoo Finance).
• The case that cyber companies win from AI got louder. Paul Meeks, head of technology research at Freedom Capital Markets, told CNBC: "All these companies like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks — they should be a beneficiary, a clear beneficiary from continued AI development."

Also in the air that week: Sam Altman's warning about AI and cybersecurity went viral (see the next story). No source says his talk caused the sell-off; reports on Thursday's drop pointed to Meta's results, comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, and oil.

Monday: the split closed

Both sides rose together:

• Chips: SMH +2.74%, PHLX Semiconductor index +2.82%, AMD +2.80%, Nvidia +2.39%
• Cybersecurity: HACK +2.8%, Palo Alto +2.60%, CIBR +2.18%, Zscaler +2.08%, Fortinet +1.86%, CrowdStrike +1.65%

Last week, money moved into the defenders as it moved out of the builders. On Monday, buyers owned both.

Sam Altman: "I no longer think we're gonna be able to just patch all the bugs"

The warning that went viral last week came from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, in a Stanford Graduate School of Business "View From The Top" talk posted on Wednesday, Oct 21.

Speaking about cybersecurity, he said leaders, countries and individuals have not yet taken the coming problem seriously. He said the models will get much smarter and will be able to find bugs outside the normal threat model of what we think a hacker can do.

Then came the line in our video:

"I no longer think we're gonna be able to just patch all the bugs. I think we're gonna have to completely switch the defense model to sort of using the same technology to, for sort of a new kind of defense shield."

And:

"And I think it's a huge safety and security issue, and I am somewhat astonished at how relatively little attention it's getting."

One post of the clip on X, by @unusual_whales, passed nearly 3 million views. You can watch the full answer on Stanford GSB's YouTube channel; it starts at about 19:25.

Under the index: 289 stocks up, 211 down

The headline said tech rally. Under it, Monday was modest.

• 289 S&P 500 stocks rose, 211 fell and 3 were unchanged.
• The median S&P 500 stock gained 0.21%, and the equal-weight average 0.36%, against 0.70% for the index.
• CNBC counted 332 risers shortly before 11 am. By the close, the count had faded to 289.

Sector funds

• Technology (XLK): +1.73%
• Industrials (XLI): +1.42%
• Consumer discretionary (XLY): +1.03%
• Real estate (XLRE): +0.54%
• Energy (XLE): +0.45%
• Financials (XLF): +0.22%
• Materials (XLB): +0.14%
• Health care (XLV): 0.00%
• Utilities (XLU): -0.02%
• Consumer staples (XLP): -0.34%
• Communication services (XLC): -1.57%

Communication services hit its lowest level since June 2025 (CNBC). Its big names fell: Charter -5.92%, Verizon -3.47%, Meta -1.88% and Alphabet -1.07%. Apple also fell 1.10%.

Last week was the reverse picture: the index slipped while most S&P 500 stocks rose. Rob Ginsberg of Wolfe Research wrote in a weekend note: "If there's one thing to take solace in of late it's the improvement in the 'average stock'" (CNBC).

Fear eased. The two camps read it differently.

CNN's Fear & Greed index climbed out of "extreme fear" on Monday. It had closed Friday at 21 and spent several days last week below 25, the extreme-fear zone. The VIX fell 5.45% to 18.39.

In the AAII weekly survey of individual investors (week ending Oct 21), 45.8% were bearish, against a long-run average of 31.5%. Bulls were 36.9% and neutral 17.3%. Bears had risen from 39.0% on Oct 7 and 41.6% on Oct 14.

Small investors have also stepped back: Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider said retail trading fell to 9% of U.S. volume, from 15% late last year (Yahoo Finance).

The contrarians

Very low sentiment has often come before rises. AAII itself says:

"Extreme readings — unusually high bearishness or bullishness — have historically preceded market reversals in the opposite direction."

Monday fit that pattern so far: fear peaked last week, and stocks rose as it eased.

The worried

• Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte, in a Friday client note: "Tech relative performance is now well into the lower half of its long-run trend channel but has not yet hit the bottom." (CNBC)
• RBC's Lori Calvasina sees room for a 5% to 10% S&P 500 pullback in the near term, to the 7,000-7,400 range, while keeping RBC's 12-month target of 8,150 (CNBC's summary).
• Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok: "The bottom line is that the AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7, and so far, there is no evidence that revenue growth or margins are improving outside the tech sector." (CNBC)

Fear can stay high while prices keep falling, and one up day proves nothing. This week's earnings will test both camps.

The week ahead: Microsoft, Alphabet, the Fed and Amazon

This is the busiest week of earnings season: 163 S&P 500 companies report (CNBC).

• Wednesday, after the close: Microsoft and Alphabet report.
• Wednesday, 2 pm ET: the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Fed funds futures put the odds of a hold at about 90%, with the target range at 3.75%-4.00% (CNBC).
• Thursday: Amazon reports in the afternoon (CNBC). Intel and Eli Lilly also report, and third-quarter GDP and September PCE inflation are due (TradeStation).

Last week, the market paid for defense. Now the giants have to show that AI spending pays. CNBC said investors are watching the biggest companies "following Meta's unnerving release last week."