Disclaimers and Disclosures
This Newsletter contains hypothetical performance results. Please carefully review and consider the following disclosures.
Important Disclosure Information
Milton Berg Edge is a newsletter (“Newsletter”) owned and published by Milton Berg Advisors, LLC, doing business as “Milton Berg Edge” (“MB Edge,” “firm,” “we,” “our,” and “us”). Milton Berg Advisors, LLC is registered as an investment advisor in the States of Florida and New York. Registration as an investment advisor does not imply any level of skill or training.
The Newsletter is a subscription based publication that contains (i) our general commentary and opinion on broad-based market trends and other factors affecting the domestic investment markets in the United States; (ii) answers and reactions to subscriber submitted questions and comments; and (iii) the actual trading activity and net performance of our proprietary investment model (as traded within an account that is actively managed by the firm) and the backtested performance of the model (the “Model”). The contents of the Newsletter and our website (“Website,” and collectively with the Newsletter, the “Content”) are for informational and educational purposes only. No portion of the Content should be construed as investment advice or recommendations tailored to the financial circumstances, investment needs, objectives, and/or limitations of any particular subscriber. Investing in securities involves the risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Subscribers do not receive ongoing investment advisory services of any kind. Subscribers are solely responsible for the ongoing management, monitoring, and implementation of their investments. A subscription to the Newsletter does not serve as a substitute for personalized investment, tax, or legal advice provided by an appropriately licensed professional. Rather, the Newsletter is intended solely to provide subscribers with a method to evaluate certain investment-related information and/or model portfolios.
The subscriber maintains the sole and absolute discretion and responsibility to evaluate the Content and to determine whether any investments, securities, ideas, opinions, and/or the Model discussed therein are appropriate for the subscriber’s financial circumstances, investment needs, objectives, and/or limitations. MB Edge expresses no opinion as to whether any Content is appropriate for any particular subscriber’s investment needs.
Any opinions contained in the Content reflects MB Edge’s judgment exclusively as of that particular date. Therefore, no current or prospective subscriber should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment Model, or non-investment-related content will be suitable or profitable for the subscriber’s portfolio. Information and opinion published in the Newsletter and/or on our Website could prove to be incorrect. All subscribers must be guided accordingly. Certain portions of the Website (i.e., past newsletters, articles, etc.) may contain a discussion of and/or provide access to, commentary and/or recommendations as of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendation(s), and no subscriber should rely thereon.
The Newsletter, the Website, and the Content is strictly confidential and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, nor may the information contained in any of the foregoing be disclosed to any other person (other than the subscriber’s professional advisors, on a confidential basis) under any circumstances without the prior written consent of MB Edge. In the event that a subscriber violates such prohibition, MB Edge reserves the right to terminate the subscriber’s Newsletter subscription and access to the Website without notice and without recourse by the subscriber.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in securities involves the risk of loss, including the risk of loss of principal. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment Model, or product, including those discussed in the Newsletter, will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for any specific subscriber’s portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. MB Edge’s obligation is expressly limited to providing the subscriber with access to the Newsletter and the Website for the subscriber’s review and consideration. MB Edge is not responsible for any determination as to the suitability of any investments, securities, or Models discussed in the Newsletter or on the website for any particular subscriber.
Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information
General
An investment in the Model is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. By electing to follow the Model, a subscriber could lose all funds invested. There is no assurance that the investment objectives of the Model will be achieved either in terms of generating profits or controlling losses. The Model has a limited performance history in actual trading. To the extent the Model has any actual performance history, the subscriber is strongly encouraged to review such history carefully.
Overall Calculation Methodology
The Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information (the “Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information”) contained within the Content does not represent the results of any actual securities portfolio or account. Rather, the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information is based on a total return version of the S&P 500 Index provided by Ned Davis Research, which assumes timely dividend reinvestment. The data provided by Ned Davis Research to MB Edge has not been audited.
The underlying methodology relies on approximately 816 data-driven, computerized models designed to identify market bottoms. These models are not intended to capture every short-term decline, but rather to recognize market lows following declines of at least -8.00% in the S&P 500. Performance results assume trades occur at the S&P 500’s closing price on the signal date, but in practice, executing trades at exact closing prices is not feasible. The model requires human intervention, and there is no guarantee that trades will be placed exactly as signaled or without delay.
These models incorporate 1,346 individual indicators that, in various combinations, have produced 816 distinct buy-signal configurations. No guarantee is made that any of these models will generate future signals, nor that signals which were profitable in the past will succeed again. Models may be revised, added, or removed as research evolves. Such updates reflect ongoing analytical development and do not imply that future results or conclusions will be more accurate or profitable. The Model seeks to maintain full long exposure during market advances and eliminate exposure during major declines by shifting entirely to Treasury bills. However, rapid or severe market downturns may cause delays in exiting S&P 500 positions at the intended price level.
Subscribers are advised that had the Model reflected in the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information been attempted in real time, the performance shown could have been materially adversely affected by, among other things, (i) inflows and outflows of capital from the hypothetical account; (ii) different allocations among the selected securities; (iii) changes in market conditions; and/or (iv) changes in the subscriber’s financial circumstances, investment needs, objectives, and limitations. All of these factors may have produced materially different results with respect to the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information shown.
Evolving Allocations
MB Edge’s ongoing development of investment strategies similar to those reflected in the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information may result in materially different performance from the Model results shown herein.
The combination of the evolving nature of MB Edge’s investment strategies and the allocations among different asset classes and securities demonstrates that the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information may well not be representative of how the Model would have performed over the same period of time in the past. Moreover, while past performance is never necessarily indicative of future results, investors should be particularly wary of using the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance in evaluating the Model.
Changing Market Conditions
The Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information only shows the performance for the Model for the time period identified. The time period utilized in preparing the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance, 1957 through 2025, included periods of high inflation, recessions, strong bull markets, and deep bear markets (e.g., the Great Depression, 1970 Oil Crisis, the Reaganomics bull run, 1987 Black Monday, the 2000 dot-com crash, the 2008 Financial Crisis, the 2010’s bull market, the Covid-19 Pandemic, etc.). There can be no assurance that the market conditions in which the Model will trade in the future will reflect the market conditions under which the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information was generated. Such differences in market conditions may have a material impact on future results and if such market conditions were to have occurred during the time period in which the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information was generated, MB Edge may have allocated different amounts of assets reflected in the chosen securities.
Fee and Cost Adjustments
The Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information reflect the gross returns of the Model, and do not reflect advisory fees, trading commissions and other transaction costs, tax considerations, and/or other potential costs (collectively, “Costs”). An investor choosing to follow the Model during the period during which the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information was calculated would have experienced various Costs which would have the effect of reducing the returns shown for the Model. The rates of return for any actual investor in the Model will vary based on the Costs they agree to pay any investment professionals engaged for services (e.g., broker-dealers, investment advisors, custodians, etc.), the volume of trades and transaction fees paid, and the timing of the investor’s investment in the Model. The Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information reflects the assumption that the investor did not deposit or withdraw any funds from the Model at any point during the sample period. The timing of any deposits or withdrawals would likewise have a substantial impact on the investment returns achieved.
MB Edge has not simulated the applicable fees and costs associated with implementing the Model when calculating the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information. Therefore, the expenses borne by the Model in real world application will significantly reduce the performance shown. Further, the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information does not include the “cash drag” (i.e., the reduction in returns normally resulting from holding assets in cash) or the interest income that might be received on cash balances.
General Disclaimer
While MB Edge believes that the methodology employed to generate the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information is reasonable, there are a variety of qualitatively different methodologies which may also have been reasonable to apply. No representation is or could be made that MB Edge’s method of calculating the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance of the Model is in any respect more accurate or more representative than any one of a number of other methods which could have been used to do so, and which may have yielded materially different and materially less favorable statistical information.
MB Edge has devoted considerable resources to the calculation of the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information and believes that it provides information which may be of interest to subscribers. However, it is not possible to quantify the effects of the various potentially distorting features of the methodologies which were used in such calculation. Accordingly, no representation is or could be made as to how MB Edge would have performed managing a stand-alone account trading the Model during the stated period. Moreover, even to the extent the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information provides meaningful data on the Model, the utility of this data is limited because it covers a limited time period.
Even were the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information to be representative of how MB Edge would have performed managing the Model during the period indicated — and there can be no assurance that is the case — (a) in implementing strategies such as those to be used for the Model, past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance, and (b) future market conditions may be materially different from those which prevailed during the period covered by the Hypothetical and Backtested Performance Information.
MB EDGE MAKES NO REPRESENTATIONS CONCERNING THE METHOD BY WHICH THE HYPOTHETICAL AND BACKTESTED PERFORMANCE INFORMATION HAS BEEN CALCULATED OR THE ASSUMPTIONS USED IN DOING SO.
THE HYPOTHETICAL AND BACKTESTED PERFORMANCE INFORMATION IS NOT, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE, A PERFORMANCE RECORD, BUT RATHER ONLY TO PRESENT CERTAIN INFORMATION WHICH MB EDGE BELIEVES MAY BE OF INTEREST TO SUBSCRIBERS.
BECAUSE OF THE SELECTION OF STRATEGY SPECIFIC INDICES TO SIMILATE THE MODEL’S INVESTMENT APPROACH, AND BECAUSE THE CHOSEN SECURITIES WERE NOT EMPLOYED ON BEHALF OF A STAND-ALONE ACCOUNT TRADED IN REAL-TIME, THE HYPOTHETICAL AND BACKTESTED PERFORMANCE INFORMATION IS “HYPOTHETICAL.” ACCORDINGLY, SUBSCRIBERS ARE ADVISED AS FOLLOWS:
THE RESULTS SHOWN FOR THE HYPOTHETICAL AND BACKTESTED PERFORMANCE INFORMATION ARE BASED ON SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS THAT HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE THE RESULTS SHOWN IN AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, THESE RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING AND HAVE LIMITED OR NO VALUE WHATSOEVER IN RESPECT OF THE EXPECTED PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL. FURTHERMORE, BECAUSE THESE INDICATED TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THESE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY, CHANGES IN MARKET CONDITIONS, CHANGES IN INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES, NEEDS AND LIMITATIONS, AND/OR OTHER FACTORS. SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT RESULTS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Past performance, in particular hypothetical and backtested performance results, are not necessarily indicative of future results. The hypothetical and backtested performance results contained herein should not be relied upon in any manner by any subscriber when making an investment decision.
