Inside the MB Edge Model: 100% Invested or 100% T-Bills
Most market-timing products promise frequent brilliance. MB Edge promises something narrower and more testable: one position at a time — 100% S&P 500 or 100% Treasury bills — switched only when decades of data say the odds have genuinely changed.
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One signal, two positions
The MB Edge model, launched for individual investors in December 2025, holds exactly one of two positions: fully invested in the S&P 500 (via broad, low-cost ETFs such as SPY or VOO) or fully in Treasury bills. A full round trip — out and back in — has historically occurred about once every 1.25 years.
In the hypothetical backtest from 1957 through early 2026, the model was invested in the S&P 500 about 80.9% of the time and in Treasuries about 19.1% of the time. There are no intraday alerts, no watchlists, and no discretionary overrides — by design. The service exists for investors with retirement-scale horizons who do not want to sift the daily flow of headlines, social-media posts, and economic data.
The exit rule — an honest answer to a hard problem
Berg's research reaches an asymmetric conclusion. Market bottoms can be modeled with precision: his team has modeled every S&P 500 bottom following declines of at least 8% since 1957, building 2,049 distinct models from thousands of data points, and buy signals typically arrive within days of major lows. Market peaks are another matter. Most data-based sell signals, he says plainly, either “arrive too early in an ongoing bull market, too late after a substantial decline has already occurred, or simply misfire.”
So the model does not pretend to call tops. Its sell signal is the decline itself: the model steps aside on a trend-following, pattern-based rule, moving to Treasury bills until a buy signal appears.
Note where the effort goes. The exit is one straightforward rule; the re-entry is where the modeling lives — more than 1,200 S&P 500 models in the retail letter's own documentation, built to pinpoint lasting lows and usually firing within days of them. The exit gives up the first slice of every major decline in exchange for sidestepping the rest; the models handle the harder job of getting back in near the low.
How the discipline played out in past bear markets
All figures below are hypothetical and backtested — the model did not exist in these years, and no client traded it. With that stated plainly, the mechanics are easiest to see in the three worst environments since 1957:
- 1969–1970. After the market peaked on November 29, 1968, the model sold on February 24, 1969. It stayed in Treasury bills until May 22, 1970 — while the S&P 500 fell a further −29.28%.
- 1973–1974. The model moved to Treasury bills on March 21, 1973 and remained there until October 4, 1974 — sidestepping a further −42.78% decline.
- 2000–2003. The model exited on April 14, 2000, in a bear market that would eventually take the S&P 500 down −49.15% in total. Notably, it did not simply hibernate: four buy signals fired during that bear market (April 5, 2001; September 19, 2001; July 22, 2002; August 6, 2002), producing hypothetical gains of +3.74%, +6.83%, +1.87%, and +2.28% before the model's exit rule triggered again.
What the model is not
MB Edge is deliberately not a trading service. Berg's institutional research publishes more than three times per week, covers many asset classes, and includes long, short, and leveraged recommendations; its long-only equity model portfolio has produced hypothetical price-only returns of 538.06% since January 1, 2016, versus 228.59% for the S&P 500 over the same period. Berg has so far declined to build an intermediate product for self-directed traders, reasoning that he cannot yet differentiate one clearly enough in scope, depth, and frequency without cannibalizing the institutional service.
It is also not personalized investment advice. MB Edge publishes the state of a long term hypothetical model and the research behind it; what any individual should do depends on circumstances the model cannot know.
Who it's for
Berg's premise is deliberately unambitious: an ordinary investor does not need to beat the market on the way up. He needs to be out of the way through the worst of a bear market, and back in near the bottom. The point of the exit rule is not to maximize every rally. It is to make the downside survivable enough, financially and emotionally, that the investor is still there — and still solvent — to act on the next buy signal.
The full signal history, methodology, and disclaimers are documented across this site; the sample reports are the best place to see the research voice firsthand.
Perguntas frequentes
What is the MB Edge model?
MB Edge is a long-term, binary market-timing model from Milton Berg Advisors: it is either 100% invested in the S&P 500 or 100% in Treasury bills. Its sell signal is a trend-following, pattern-based rule applied once a decline is underway, while re-entry comes from the modeled side of the work — buy signals built to identify lasting lows. It is a long term hypothetical model — backtested, not a live track record over most of its history.
How often does the MB Edge model trade?
Historically — in the hypothetical backtest since 1957 — a full round-trip signal has occurred about once every 1.25 years, with the model invested in equities about 80.9% of the time.
What does the model do in a bear market?
It moves to Treasury bills once its exit rule triggers, then takes any model-generated buy signal that appears — even mid-bear. In the 2000–2003 backtest it exited early in the decline and traded four interim buy signals while the index fell −49.15% peak to trough.
Is MB Edge financial advice?
No. MB Edge publishes research and the state of a hypothetical model for educational purposes. It is not individualized investment advice or a recommendation tailored to any person's situation; investors should consult their own advisers.
This article draws on Milton Berg's published interviews and MB Edge's own published materials. Quotations are Berg's own words.
O MB Edge publica um modelo hipotético de longo prazo. Qualquer desempenho do modelo mencionado neste artigo é hipotético e resultado de backtesting, não representa operações reais em nenhuma conta de cliente e não garante resultados futuros. Este artigo é conteúdo educacional; não constitui aconselhamento de investimento individualizado nem recomendação de compra ou venda de qualquer ativo.
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