Futures Point Higher as US Crude Slips Below $100, With Apple, the Midterms and Jobs Ahead

Stock futures point higher before the open after Friday's worst day for the Nasdaq since June

Stock futures pointed higher early Monday, ahead of the 9:30 am New York open, after Friday's drop gave the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 their worst day since June 5.

As of about 6:50 am New York time, against Friday's settlement (live prices that keep moving until the opening bell):

• Nasdaq-100 futures: about +0.8%
• S&P 500 futures: about +0.5%
• Dow futures: about +0.5%, or 265 points
• Russell 2000 futures: about +0.7%

Futures opened Sunday evening only slightly higher, and the gains built overnight as oil prices fell about 4%. Market reports said the decline in oil helped risk sentiment (see the next story).

Chips lead the early bounce

Friday's losses were concentrated in chip and AI stocks, and those names were among the early gainers. In premarket trading around 5 am New York time, SpaceX was up about 3%, Micron about 2.7%, AMD about 2.2% and Nvidia about 1.5%. Apple was slightly lower ahead of its results after today's close.

Overnight markets

Asia was mixed. South Korea's Kospi rose 2.24% and the Shanghai Composite 1.08%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.33% and Taiwan's market fell 0.65%. Chinese stocks rose. Separately, the Chinese outlet Cailian reported Sunday that the country's three main financial regulators will hold meetings with major banks to study lending programs that support stock buybacks.

In Tokyo, memory maker Kioxia fell about 14% after it cautioned that flash-memory price gains are stalling: average selling prices of NAND flash rose in the mid-20% range in the quarter to September, compared with 70% the quarter before.

Europe's major indexes were slightly higher by midday. Elsewhere early Monday, gold was back above $3,900 an ounce, bitcoin held near $77,800, the dollar was a little weaker and the 10-year Treasury yield was about 4.92%.

What it could mean

A higher open after a sharp drop can bring back buyers who stepped aside on Friday, and a bounce that holds through the session would suggest the selling pressure has eased. Premarket gains can also fade once regular trading starts, and this week still holds Apple's results, the midterm vote and the October jobs report. Because Friday's losses were concentrated in chips and AI names, how those stocks trade after the open may say more than the index futures do.

Will the early bounce hold once the opening bell rings?

US crude slips back below $100 early Monday amid reports of US-Iran diplomacy

Oil prices fell sharply early Monday. As of about 6:50 am New York time, US crude (West Texas Intermediate, December contract) traded near $99.43 a barrel, down about 4.5% from Friday's settlement of $104.12, back below $100. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was near $108.50 for its January contract, down about 4.4% from Friday's $113.43. Both are pre-market prices and can move back before the open.

Oil fell amid reports that both the United States and Iran are seeking diplomatic options to end the conflict, including a report that President Trump wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before any new strikes (see the next story).

After a record for energy stocks

The drop follows a strong Friday for oil and energy. WTI settled up 2.08% and Brent up 2.37% on Friday, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR fund (XLE) rose 1.91% to a record close, one of six of the 11 S&P 500 sector funds that gained on a day when technology shares fell sharply.

In Europe, oil and gas shares led the early losses on Monday.

Moh Siong Sim, a foreign-exchange strategist at OCBC Bank Singapore, said, as quoted by Bloomberg:

"The dollar remains caught between AI and oil. A modest rebound in Nasdaq futures offers some relief, while softer oil eases inflation concerns."

What it could mean

Lower oil could ease inflation worries and take some pressure off bond yields, which has often helped stocks, especially companies that spend heavily on fuel. Energy stocks, which closed at a record on Friday, could give back ground if the decline continues. If the diplomacy reports fade, or strikes resume after Tuesday's vote, the move could reverse just as quickly.

Is oil's drop the start of a calmer stretch for energy prices, or a pause before the next headline?

Trump wants more time for Iran talks before any new strikes, Axios reports; Rubio says no decision has been made

President Trump wants to let negotiations with Iran play out for now, Axios reported Sunday, citing an Israeli and a US source, even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presses him to strike Iran immediately after Tuesday's midterm elections. The Israeli source described their call as "tough"; the US source called it "direct."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters over the weekend:

"He [Trump] hasn't made a decision...what the president expresses to you is incredible confidence that if we needed to do something militarily, we would have the ability to do it."

He added: "But we would prefer to do it peacefully."

The talks

Qatari mediators met Iranian officials Sunday for a third consecutive day, in an effort to reach a deal to restart direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that consultations were continuing but had not produced a final agreement.

The other side of the reporting

Other reports point the other way. MS NOW, citing three senior Gulf Arab officials who were granted anonymity, reported that the administration had briefed Gulf allies to prepare for "a short, intense round of strikes as soon as Nov. 4, the day after the midterms." A White House official said, as quoted by MS NOW: "We do not comment on sensitive military plans that may or may not exist." The Atlantic reported that the president was presented with plans for attacks that could last hours, days or weeks.

On Saturday, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei called for Tehran's armed forces to meet "any level or type of threat" with "an immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response."

None of this is decided. The reports describe options, and Rubio says the president has not made a decision.

What it could mean

If the talks gain ground, oil could keep easing, which may help fuel-sensitive businesses while weighing on energy producers. If strikes resume after Tuesday's vote, oil and defense stocks could jump while the broader market comes under pressure. Until there is a decision, headlines alone may bring sharp moves in either direction.

Which will move markets more this week: the Iran headlines or the earnings and economic data on the calendar?

3Fourteen's Warren Pies: nothing broken in the AI trade fundamentally, but the charts are another story

On the evening of Friday's sell-off, Warren Pies, co-founder and strategist at 3Fourteen Research, told CNBC's "Closing Bell Overtime":

"I just don't see anything broken with the AI trade fundamentally. Technicals are another story."

Pies is not calling a bottom: in the same interview he also said he was not ready to add risk yet. His view splits the question in two: the business case for AI is intact, while the price action has turned weak.

Others who see a correction, not an end

• Barclays strategists including Ajay Rajadhyaksha wrote in a note: "Recent weeks are not, in our view, the 'start of the end' of the AI trade. This strikes us as more of a garden variety correction, of the sort we have seen twice before in 2026. In both prior corrections, the power of earnings ultimately blew past market concerns."
• Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said, as quoted by Bloomberg, that there are a few "clearing events" ahead that could temporarily push stocks lower and create an opportunity for investors to add exposure.
• Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Investment Management, said, as quoted by Bloomberg: "This looks more like a bullish rotation with a derating at its core than the beginning of a broad market deterioration."
• Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, told CNBC-TV18 on Monday that the sell-off was "taking some air out of the AI bubble," which he sees as a positive. He expects chip stocks to rebound and a year-end rally, but suggested holding back cash for buying opportunities after the elections or any further escalation in the Iran war.
• Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac told Yahoo Finance on Friday: "I did buy some today... this is an opportunity here." He said he would change his view on a decisive break of the S&P 500's mid-September low near 7,550, less than 1% below Friday's close.

What it could mean

If the fundamentals view is right, a pullback driven mainly by positioning and charts has often been followed by a recovery once the selling runs its course, and the chip and AI names that fell hardest could lead it. If the technical damage deepens, those same leaders could keep sliding even without bad news, as buyers wait for the "clearing events" to pass.

Is Friday's drop a chart problem that repairs itself, or the start of a deeper reassessment of AI stocks?

Truist's Keith Lerner: four of tech's six pullbacks of 10% or more since 2023 reached 14% to 27%

Not everyone sees a buying chance yet. Truist's Keith Lerner points out that the S&P 500 technology sector has had six pullbacks of 10% or more since 2023, including the current one, and that four of the six ranged from 14% to 27%, Yahoo Finance reported. That is history, not a forecast, but it frames the risk if the current drop runs further.

Lerner, as quoted by Yahoo Finance:

"The story is no longer simply about the strength of AI demand. Wall Street is increasingly demanding evidence that heavy investment will translate into durable profits and cash flow."

Others urging caution

• Chaltan Wang, a portfolio manager at HashKey Capital, said, as quoted by Bloomberg: "The key question is whether we are seeing a temporary correction in the very popular technology trade, or maybe the beginning of a reassessment of all these AI-related plays."
• Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower, said, as quoted by Reuters, that the stock market "seems a bit troubled to me, and I think that really stems from the AI fears that seem to be persistent, if not building."
• Chris Galipeau, head market strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, said, as quoted by Reuters: "The earnings bar is very high. And if you miss or don't jump over that bar, you're in trouble."

By Yahoo Finance's calculations, the biggest AI and chip stocks have shed about $5 trillion in market value since Oct. 6.

What it could mean

If investors keep demanding proof that AI spending pays, the biggest spenders and their chip suppliers could stay under pressure even after a bounce, while money keeps flowing to sectors outside technology. If this week's earnings clear a high bar, the pullback could end nearer the shallow end of the historical range. The history shows a range of outcomes, not a set path.

Will this pullback stop near 10%, or join the deeper ones?

Retail traders on Stocktwits turn "extremely bearish" on Apple, and CNN's Fear & Greed index stays in fear

Futures were up early Monday, but the retail crowd was not cheering. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Apple was in "extremely bearish" territory over the past day heading into its report, Stocktwits reported. Sentiment on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell to "neutral" from "bullish" over the past 24 hours, while sentiment on the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, stayed bearish. Palantir was among the top-trending tickers, with sentiment in "bearish" territory.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index stood at 25.8 early Monday, in its "fear" zone, slightly below Friday's 26.2 and down from 29.8 a week earlier and 38.2 a month earlier.

Volatility

The VIX, Wall Street's volatility gauge, closed Friday at 19.42, up 12.9% on the day. Bloomberg reported that it recently touched its highest intraday level since April while demand for puts protecting against further losses surged, but said those measures remain well below the levels reached in March after the US and Israel attacked Iran.

What it could mean

Very low sentiment has often come before rebounds, because much of the selling may already be done when the crowd is most worried. But sentiment can stay low for weeks when the news keeps disappointing, and a gloomy crowd heading into Apple's report could make the reaction sharper in either direction.

Is the bearish mood a sign the selling is nearly done, or a warning worth heeding?

Apple and Palantir report after today's close; Apple is expected to earn about $2 a share

Apple reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results after the closing bell today, its first earnings call under new CEO John Ternus. Analysts expect earnings of about $2 a share on about $113 billion in revenue: $2.00 on $113.46 billion in the Bloomberg analyst consensus, and $1.99 on $113.35 billion according to Koyfin. iPhone sales are projected at $56.48 billion, up 15% from a year earlier.

Apple shares closed Friday at $344.63, down 1.23%, and slipped about 0.5% in premarket trading Monday. Bloomberg reported that Apple reclaimed the title of world's most valuable company on Friday, taking it from Nvidia, as investors sought the perceived safety of the iPhone maker amid concerns about AI spending.

What to watch

• The iPhone: the quarter includes early iPhone 18 Pro sales. The iPhone Duo went on preorder Oct. 16 and on sale Oct. 23, after Apple's fiscal fourth quarter ended, so any comments on its demand will be watched closely.
• Memory costs: the cost of memory chips has climbed, and Apple has forecast a gross margin of about 47% to 48%, down from 50% last quarter, a figure that also benefited from a one-time boost from tariff refunds.

Palantir

Palantir reports its third-quarter results after the close as well. Revenue is expected to climb 85% from a year earlier to $2.18 billion, slower than the 93% growth of the second quarter, and adjusted earnings to rise 94% to $0.41 a share, according to Koyfin. The shares rose 1.3% in premarket trading. Palantir sells AI software rather than building its business around chips and data-center capacity, so its results offer another read on demand for AI applications.

ON Semiconductor and Roku also report after today's close, and Vertex, Marriott, Estee Lauder, Diamondback Energy and Clorox are also on today's earnings calendar.

What it could mean

Strong iPhone numbers and a confident outlook could steady the large technology stocks after Friday's drop, given Apple's weight in the major indexes. A weaker margin outlook on memory costs could do the opposite and add to concern about rising chip costs across hardware makers. Palantir's growth rate may set the tone for AI software names in the days after.

Which report will matter more for tech this week: Apple's iPhone quarter or Palantir's AI growth?

Midterm elections on Tuesday: what is at stake for the stock market

Americans vote Tuesday in the midterm elections, with the stock market open as usual. Democrats are widely predicted to win the House of Representatives, while the Senate is more in doubt. Nothing is decided until the votes are counted.

Where markets could feel it

• Data centers and AI: investors are bracing for more pushback on data centers over their impact on energy costs and the environment. A Democratic sweep is expected to bring more scrutiny, despite doubts that any legislation would pose serious risks to AI investment.
• Defense and health care: a shift in Washington could bring an unwind in defense spending and maybe greater pricing pressure on drug makers.
• Banks and crypto: a Democratic sweep could bring more regulatory scrutiny for Wall Street banks and crypto firms.

Two views on how much it matters:

"To the extent that the Democrats really do have a significant blue wave, I think that will be seen as negative for both the AI names, for tech to some extent in general, and maybe even for the market as a whole," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, as quoted by Reuters.

Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon, wrote in a note last week that "stocks tend to stay steady regardless of which party gains control of Congress."

The history

By the Stock Trader's Almanac's count, from the last October close of a midterm year to the end of the following June, the S&P 500 has risen 19 times out of 19 since 1950, with a median gain of about 15%, and chip stocks have been 8-for-8 since 1994, Yahoo Finance reported. Those are historical results, not a forecast.

What it could mean

A result in line with expectations could remove one source of uncertainty and let attention return to earnings and the economy. A larger Democratic sweep could weigh on AI and data-center names, defense contractors, drug makers and banks facing more regulation, while a narrower result could ease those worries.

Is the vote already priced in, or could the result still surprise the market?

AMD on Tuesday, Qualcomm on Wednesday, and the October jobs report on Friday with about 55,000 jobs expected

After Apple and Palantir, the week's calendar is full. All times are New York time.

• Today, Monday: S&P Global's final manufacturing PMI at 9:45 am, then ISM manufacturing for October at 10:00 am (54.7 expected, 54.5 prior; prices paid 77.5 expected, 77.9 prior), and construction spending. The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey is due at 2:00 pm.
• Tuesday: Election Day. AMD reports, along with Pfizer, Amgen, Arista, Super Micro, Booking, Block and Apollo. JOLTS job openings at 10:00 am.
• Wednesday: Qualcomm reports, along with McDonald's, Uber, AppLovin, DoorDash, Datadog and CVS. ADP private payrolls at 8:15 am, ISM services at 10:00 am, and the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement.
• Thursday: jobless claims and productivity at 8:30 am. Airbnb, ConocoPhillips, Lumentum, Microchip and Axon report.
• Friday: the October jobs report at 8:30 am, then consumer sentiment at 10:00 am.

The chipmakers

AMD reports after a 10.88% drop on Friday, part of a day when the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 6.98%. AMD and Qualcomm's results are the week's next big read on chip demand. Nvidia reports later in November.

The jobs report and the Fed

Economists polled by Dow Jones expect the October report to show an increase of about 55,000 jobs, after 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%, according to FactSet.

The Fed does not meet this week. It held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 in a 10-2 vote, with both dissenters favoring a hike. The next meeting is Dec. 8-9. Stocktwits wrote that the jobs report "will help determine whether slowing hiring changes expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike in December."

What it could mean

Results from AMD and Qualcomm could show whether chip demand is holding up after Friday's steep drop: strong numbers could support a rebound in the group, weak ones could extend the slide. On Friday, a weak jobs number could revive worries about growth, while a strong one could raise talk of another rate hike in December, which tends to pressure bonds and richly valued stocks.

Which would unsettle the market more on Friday: a weak jobs number or a strong one?

Friday's close: the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had their worst day since June 5 as tech and chip stocks fell

The last close before today's open came Friday, Oct. 30. Tech and chip stocks dragged the indexes down:

• S&P 500: 7,580.07, down 1.82%
• Nasdaq Composite: 25,437.00, down 2.86%
• Nasdaq-100: 28,384.85, down 3.46%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,770.31, down 1.09%
• Russell 2000: 2,811.84, down 1.66%
• VIX: 19.42, up 12.9%

For both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite it was the worst day since June 5.

The shape of the day

It was not a broad sell-off. In the S&P 500, 226 stocks rose and 277 fell, and the median stock lost just 0.32%. The damage was in technology: the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 6.98% and the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) 4.89%. Intel fell 28.58%, its worst day since 1974; AMD fell 10.88%, Broadcom 5.48%, Micron 5.30% and Nvidia 4.22%.

Defensive and energy shares gained. The energy fund XLE rose 1.91% to a record close, consumer staples gained 1.41%, utilities 0.67% and health care 0.45%. Eli Lilly rose 3.19% and Walmart 1.86%.

The week and the month

• Week of Oct. 26-30: S&P 500 down 0.57% and Nasdaq down 2.00%, a third straight losing week for both; Dow down 0.85%; Russell 2000 up 1.29%. Most stocks rose: 321 of 503 S&P 500 stocks gained for the week, with a median gain of 1.30%.
• October: S&P 500 down 0.93%; Nasdaq down 5.30%, its worst month since March 2025; Dow up 1.70%; Russell 2000 up 0.54%.

By Yahoo Finance's calculations, 9 of the S&P 500's 11 sectors rose about 1% or more last week, something that had not happened in any week since at least 1999.

Rates, oil, gold and bitcoin on Friday

The 10-year Treasury yield ended near 4.93%. US crude (WTI, December) settled at $104.12, up 2.08%, and Brent (January) at $113.43, up 2.37%. Gold (December) fell 3.29% to $3,898.90. Bitcoin was about $77,200 at 8 pm New York time.

What it could mean

When most stocks rise while the index falls, the selling is concentrated in a few heavyweights, which can mean money is rotating within the market rather than leaving it. That kind of breadth has often cushioned the broader market. It can also mean the stocks that carried the index higher are losing their leadership, and without them the index may struggle to make progress.

Is last week's strength under the surface a sign of healthy rotation, or a warning that the market's leaders are losing their grip?