Articles et analyses
Des articles originaux sur la méthode des points de retournement de Milton Berg, les leçons de six décennies d'histoire des marchés et la discipline derrière le modèle MB Edge.
Les articles sont actuellement publiés en anglais.
Who Is Milton Berg? A 48-Year Career Built on Market Turning Points
From the 1987 crash call to the desks of Michael Steinhardt, George Soros, and Stanley Druckenmiller: the career of Milton Berg, CFA, the market technician behind MB Edge.
Lire l'articleWhat Is a “Reflecting Boundary”? The Idea Behind Milton Berg's Market-Bottom Signals
In a 2008 paper, Milton Berg borrowed Stephen Jay Gould's drunkard-and-wall image to explain how a market can be random most days and still be timed within days of its lows.
An Indicator Is Not a Model
Milton Berg tracks 30,000 indicators and runs more than 2,000 models. The difference between the two — a real example from the March 2020 low — is the entire method.
Has a Bear Market Ever Started Without the Fed?
No major bear market has begun without Federal Reserve tightening, says Milton Berg — plus the old two-hike rule, and why 2022 is the example most people get backwards.
Where the 8% Rule Comes From — and Why 5% Would Break It
Why does Milton Berg's model exit after an 8% decline and not 5%? Because, he says, 8% is where its buy signals have historically begun to appear.
How Milton Berg Called the Gold Top — and Why He Thinks It Lasts
He sold his own gold the day of the high in January 2026. The evidence was not a chart pattern but a set of ratios — and he now expects a long-term bear market in gold.
Does the Oil Price Cause Inflation?
“Oil and inflation have zero correlation.” Why Milton Berg calls the link a mistake, what a $100 wallet explains about it, and what it means for the Federal Reserve.
Do Rising Bond Yields Have to Hurt Stocks?
Milton Berg holds a bond view he says nobody shares: yields at 6, 7 or 8% would be normal, not a crisis — and rising yields alone are not what breaks a bull market.
You Don't Have to Call the Top
Nobody calls market tops consistently — Milton Berg says he never found one who does. But bottoms can be called within days, and that is what makes stepping aside safe.
Does Market Timing Actually Work? What 68 Years of Evidence Says
Most market timing fails, and the evidence is real — but it condemns frequent, emotional trading, not a low-frequency, rules-based discipline.
What Is MB Edge? The $10 Newsletter, Explained Honestly
The MB Edge team's honest explainer of Milton Berg's $10/month S&P-500-or-T-bills signal — the record, the backtest caveats, and who shouldn't subscribe.
What Is Turning Point Analysis? Milton Berg's Method, Explained
Turning Point Analysis holds that daily market moves are mostly random — but extremes are not. How Milton Berg finds high-probability market turns.
How Milton Berg Called the 1987 Crash
Five warning signs flashed before Black Monday 1987: extreme valuation, breadth divergences, a perverse sentiment response to the Fed, portfolio insurance, and a cycle window.
Why Simple Market Signals Beat Complex Indicators
Milton Berg tracks 30,000+ indicators, yet his best buy signals use just two or three inputs. Why rarity — not sophistication — makes a signal worth acting on.
Anatomy of a Market Bottom: The April 2025 Low
On April 4, 2025, three rare extremes fired at once — then 57 signals in a single day. A case study in how signal clusters identify major stock market bottoms.
Inside the MB Edge Model: 100% Invested or 100% T-Bills
How the MB Edge long term hypothetical model decides between full S&P 500 exposure and Treasury bills — and how its exit rule handled past bear markets.
Why No Two Market Bottoms Look Alike
Capitulation shows up differently at every major low. Why Milton Berg relies on clusters of rare signals instead of one indicator that must always work.
From Benjamin Graham to Technical Analysis: Milton Berg's Conversion
Milton Berg began as a strict Graham value investor who mocked charts. What changed his mind — and what he says valuation still can't do.
The Costliest Mistakes Investors Make at Market Turning Points
Untested indicators, refusing to turn on a dime, overthinking signals, leveraged ETFs: the mistakes Milton Berg sees investors repeat at market turns.
Milton Berg's Reading List: The Books Behind a 48-Year Career
The books a 48-year market technician actually recommends: William O'Neil, Marty Zweig, Thomas Bulkowski — and 35 pages of Benjamin Graham.