MB EDGE Real Time Portfolio · Position initiated May 30, 2025
- VOO (S&P 500 ETF)
- 99.69%
- Treasury Money Market Fund
- 00.31%
- Portfolio Gain May 31 to Date
- 16.58%
Long-Term Investment Model Positioning
- The long-term investing model continues to maintain 100% exposure to the S&P 500, following an initial buy signal at the close of trading on April 4, 2025.
- On April 4, 2025 the S&P 500 closed at 5,074.08 after a single-day decline of -5.97% and a decline of -17.41% from the February 19 peak.
- Beginning on April 4th our models generated multiple confirming buy signals, with notable concentrations of buy triggers occurring during early to mid-April and additional signals dispersed through August.
- On April 4, three rare statistical market indicators appeared simultaneously, signaling a likely tradable market low: • The NASDAQ’s five-day average trading volume reached a 200-day high • The NASDAQ declined by at least 7% over a three-day period • The NASDAQ Volatility Index (VXN) gained 10% or more in each of two consecutive sessions
- This combination of factors has been historically rare, observed only four times previously, and each occurrence was followed by a substantial market rally. Historically, the median S&P 500 gain within the following 12 months was +23.20%, with the maximum drawdown after such signals measuring just -3.92%.
- Since the April 4 buy signal, the S&P 500 has appreciated +36.62% through its latest high on December 24, 2025.
- From April 4 through December 31, 2025, the S&P 500 gained +34.91%. The total return including reinvested dividends was +35.16%.
- For the year 2025 as a whole, the model shifted from the S&P 500 to Treasuries on March 10, and reverted to the S&P 500 at the close of April 4 generating a theoretical model return for the year 2025 of +30.67%, while the total return for the year 2025 in the S&P 500 index was 17.84%.
Investing Tactically For the Long-Term
- Although numerous model-based buy signals were recorded, this retail-oriented report highlights the initial April 4 signal that prompted our transition to a bullish investment posture. Subsequent confirmations reinforced the strength and reliability of that initial signal, supporting the decision to maintain full exposure to the S&P 500.
Model Signals and Market Outlook
- Based on the model’s signals and the confluence of statistically significant market indicators, there is strong historical precedent for a continued bullish environment following such buy triggers. The model will shift to Treasury bills only if a pullback of -8% or greater occurs from a closing S&P 500 high. This disciplined approach seeks to capture upside while minimizing bear market risk.
Tracking Portfolio Performance
- A tracking portfolio was established to implement the model’s signals in real time. The real-time actual tracking portfolio commenced at the close of trading on May 30, with performance calculations beginning June 1. The portfolio is currently allocated 99.69% to the S&P 500 via VOO, an ETF designed to mirror the index’s performance, and 0.31% to Treasury bills.
- At inception (May 30), the portfolio’s value stood at $9,997.76. As of the close on January 5, 2026, the portfolio value is $11,772.87, representing a gain of +17.75% over the measurement period. In comparison, the S&P 500 Index has returned 16.75%, while the S&P 500 Total Return index (SPXT) (which includes reinvested dividends) as measured by Bloomberg gained +17.63% over the same period.
- At this writing investors who are following our long term-investment model should be fully invested in the S&P 500 index through one of the tracking ETF’s. We have chosen VOO due to its somewhat lower expense ratio.
- We want to reiterate that our S&P 500 long-term investment model is not designed to reduce exposure at exact market peaks but rather after the S&P 500 has begun a decline.
- On the other hand the model has been built to pinpoint turning points at or very near to bear market lows.
Summary
- Based on the message of our long term investment model, investors should remain fully invested in the S&P 500.