The Dow's Best Day Since April 2025 and the Market's Worst, a Day Apart, Left the S&P 500 Down 2.68%, Its Worst Week Since Then

The Dow had its best day since April 2025 on Wednesday; on Thursday all three major indexes had their worst since then

Democrats won control of Congress on Tuesday, along with key governorships, including Texas. Over the next two sessions the market swung in opposite directions after the same result.

On Wednesday the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1,569.40 points, or 3.03%, to 53,356.12, its best day since April 9, 2025. It was a rotation: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, banks and retailers rose, while AI builders and energy fell. The S&P 500 rose 1.58% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.44%, and 376 S&P 500 stocks rose.

On Thursday it all reversed:

• Nasdaq Composite: down 1,421.51 points (-5.52%) to 24,315.00, closing in a correction
• S&P 500: down 334.89 points (-4.36%) to 7,353.73
• Dow: down 1,833.06 points (-3.44%) to 51,523.06

For each of the three, it was the worst day since April 4, 2025. Only 73 S&P 500 stocks rose, and 430 fell.

The main reason reported was worry about a potential slowdown in data center construction after the Democratic wins, since some of the winners have called for moratoriums. The stories below take up that fear and the other pressures named: forced selling, valuations and earnings doubts.

The round trip

Friday did not repair it. The S&P 500 rose 0.31% and the Nasdaq 1.09%, but the Dow lost another 237.33 points, to its lowest close since Oct. 8. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Dow and the Russell 2000 all ended the week below Tuesday's close, the day of the vote, and below their Oct. 30 closes.

What it could mean

A swing this wide in two sessions may show how much of the market's direction now rests on a single theme. If the data center fears fade, the groups hit hardest could recover quickly. If limits on construction are actually written into law, the repricing could have further to run.

Did Thursday reprice the AI buildout for good, or was it an overreaction to promises that are not yet law?

The close: the S&P 500 fell 2.68%, its worst week since April 2025, and the Nasdaq is still in a correction

All three major indexes lost ground for the week. The Dow held up best, and the Nasdaq Composite did not get back above the correction line.

• S&P 500: 7,376.86, down 203.21 points for the week (-2.68%); Friday +0.31%
• Nasdaq Composite: 24,579.42, down 857.58 (-3.37%); Friday +1.09%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,285.73, down 484.58 (-0.94%); Friday -0.46%
• Russell 2000: 2,754.11, down 57.73 (-2.05%); Friday +0.89%
• Nasdaq-100: 26,989.99 (-4.91%); Friday +1.35%
• PHLX Semiconductor index: 9,390.25 (-12.15%); Friday +4.21%
• VIX (the fear gauge): 25.64, up 32.03% from 19.42; Friday -9.01%

Where they stand

The S&P 500's title is a narrow one: the week was its worst since the week ended April 4, 2025 (-9.08%), but only just, against -2.61% in May 2025 and -2.59% in June 2026. It was also the index's fourth straight losing week, -5.56% across the four. It sits 5.65% below its Oct. 6 record and is up 7.76% for 2026.

The Nasdaq, also down four weeks in a row, is 10.94% below its Oct. 6 record. The 10% line is 24,839.81, and Friday's close is about 260 points under it. Its week was its worst only since Oct. 16. The Dow is 5.64% below its August record, and the Russell 2000 is 10.24% below its own. The VIX closed at 16.61 on Wednesday and 28.18 on Thursday, its highest close since March 30.

Day by day: S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow

• Monday: -0.51%, -1.07%, +0.41%
• Tuesday: +0.36%, +0.83%, -0.38%
• Wednesday: +1.58%, +1.44%, +3.03%
• Thursday: -4.36%, -5.52%, -3.44%
• Friday: +0.31%, +1.09%, -0.46%

Rates, oil, gold, bitcoin

The 10-year Treasury yield ended about 4.86%, up on Friday and down about 7 basis points for the week. The 30-year ended about 5.26%. WTI crude ended about $91 and Brent about $98, each down about 13% for the week. Gold ended about $4,075, up about 4.5%, its best week since the week ended Aug. 21. Silver ended about $52, up about 5.5%. Bitcoin ended about $76,000, down about 2%, after topping $80,000 on Wednesday. The dollar index closed at 102.30, up 0.74% on Friday.

What it could mean

A fourth straight weekly loss may keep sellers in charge, and a Nasdaq still under its correction line could draw more selling from funds that follow trends. Past VIX jumps of this size have also, on average, been followed by gains in the months after, so elevated fear could instead set up a rebound.

Is this the middle of a longer decline, or the late stage of a pullback inside a market still up nearly 8% for the year?

The chip index fell 12.15% for the week, and Japan and Taiwan entered bear markets on Friday

The PHLX Semiconductor index fell 12.15% for the week, its worst week since the week ended April 4, 2025 (-16.04%), even after gaining 4.21% on Friday. On Thursday alone it dropped about 12%, its worst day since March 2020.

It was the index's fifth straight losing week, -28.52% across the five. The index is 28.96% below its Oct. 6 close and 35.84% below its June 22 record, and it is still up about 33% for 2026. The VanEck Semiconductor fund (SMH) fell 11.20%, also its fifth straight weekly loss.

Micron fell 22.01% for the week, its worst since April 2025, and is still up 141.76% for 2026. Sandisk lost 27.44%, its seventh straight weekly loss, and is still up 251.78% for the year.

Overseas, after Wall Street's drop

Asia's markets fell on Friday their time, after Thursday's selling in New York, as the technology rout spread through the region:

• Japan's Nikkei 225: -5.96% to 57,434.77, entering a bear market, more than 20% below its June peak
• Taiwan's Taiex: -4.51% to 39,701.64, also entering a bear market
• South Korea's Kospi: down more than 6% to 5,059.69, and -11.7% on the week; an early drop of more than 8% triggered circuit breakers that halted trading for 20 minutes

During Friday's session in Asia, SoftBank Group, Advantest, TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics all fell sharply. Europe's Stoxx 600 was down about 1.7% earlier in its session.

What it could mean

Five straight weekly losses have left chip stocks far below their highs, and a decline this sharp could set up a strong rebound. But the index is still well above where the year began, so there may be more gains to give back if orders for AI hardware weaken. Bear markets in Tokyo and Taipei, where chip names were among the heaviest losers, could also add to the pressure on technology stocks elsewhere.

Are chip stocks now pricing in the worst case, or is a gain of about 33% for the year still too much to hold?

Investors fear the Democratic sweep could slow the AI buildout, though no Texas pause is in force

The fear most often named for Thursday's selling was political. Democrats won the House, the Senate and key governorships. Many campaigned against data centers, and some of them, at the national and state level, have called for moratoriums. Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre noted that candidates in both parties campaigned against AI data centers.

One key worry is a Goldman Sachs estimate reported by Yahoo Finance: about 45% of planned U.S. data center capacity faces possible restrictions, after tallying newly elected governors who have promised to stop or pause construction.

No Texas pause is in force. Gina Hinojosa and others are not slated to take office until January, and Chris Grisanti of MAI Capital Management said, as reported by CNBC, that investors' fears will likely persist because of that wait.

Other reasons named

The election was not the only reason given:

• Forced selling, covered in its own story below.
• Valuations. Bank of America's Wamsi Mohan wrote to clients: "The recent sell-off in AI-exposed IT hardware has come from lower valuation multiples, not lower earnings estimates."
• AI spending. The sector was already under scrutiny over capital spending, profitability and debt, and that week's earnings from Qualcomm and Arm were mixed.

CNBC put Thursday's loss for the "Magnificent Seven" at more than $1 trillion in market value, with Nvidia alone losing more than $440 billion. Yahoo Finance put the loss across the stock market at about $3 trillion.

The White House answers

President Trump pinned the fall on the vote, writing on Truth Social late Thursday: "The Stock Market suffered one of the Worst Days in History based on the results of the Election." Thursday was the worst day for the major indexes since April 2025. On Friday the president wrote of data centers:

"They are GOLD, and only foolish leadership will say "NO" to the riches they bring!"

What it could mean

If moratoriums spread, the companies that build, power and equip data centers could face slower growth, while the largest cloud companies, with the money to meet new rules, might end up in a stronger position. If the promises narrow into local rules and permits, the fear may turn out to be larger than the effect, and the stocks hit hardest could recover.

Is a campaign promise about data centers a real threat to AI spending, or a headline the market will come to look through?

Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa on data centers, after Thursday's close: "that stops when I'm governor"

Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic governor-elect of Texas, spoke to Jake Tapper on CNN's "The Lead" after Thursday's close, so the interview did not cause that day's drop. Tapper opened the subject by citing the losses and saying AI investors were worried, given her "promises of a temporary data center moratorium."

Hinojosa's answer:

"It is not that I hate data centers. I hate the way they are taking advantage of Texas, and that stops when I'm governor."

Earlier in the interview, Hinojosa said data centers have moved into mostly rural communities with no rules and laws to protect Texans. Texas will have such laws, Hinojosa said, and needs to stop what it is doing with data centers until those protections exist. Hinojosa also said communities should have a seat at the table in deciding if and how data centers come in.

Tapper cited CNN's voter polling from the race, which showed voters opposing data centers in their communities, 75% to 25%.

How far a governor can go

A promise is not a law. Hinojosa does not take office until January. Nancy Sims, a political science lecturer at the University of Houston, told ABC13 in Houston that a governor can act only on future projects:

"You can't really freeze mid-construction."

Sims added: "What she can do is put a moratorium on new data centers."

Yardeni Research told clients that already permitted projects would be allowed to finish construction, a point it credited to Hinojosa. That line does not appear in the interview as CNN published it. Yardeni said permitted projects account for "essentially all of Texas's planned data center capacity in 2027 and likely much of 2028."

Musk's Texas

Tesla and SpaceX are both based in Texas. Asked whether Elon Musk might move them, Hinojosa said the state can have a strong working relationship with Musk and his companies, on the state's terms.

What it could mean

A pause limited to new projects would touch later-year growth more than the buildings now rising, which could ease the near-term fear for chip and power stocks. A broader or longer pause could shift new construction to other states, helping some regions and suppliers while hurting those most tied to Texas. Either way, the details may matter more than the headline.

Will the final Texas rules look more like a brief pause or a lasting limit on new data centers?

Levered funds and everyday investors sold heavily on Thursday, and analysts disagree on whether that was the final flush

Thursday's drop drew in sellers who may have had little choice. The X account Morgan Stanley Derivatives posted:

"Levered ETFs had the largest amount to sell on data going back to 2007, bringing $57bn of US equity supply."

The account also said retail selling of U.S. stocks in Thursday's first 90 minutes was the second largest going back to 2016, an estimate that covers only that window. The figures are the account's own, and its link to the bank could not be confirmed.

A surrender, or not yet

Vanda Research's count put Thursday among the heaviest retail selling days since 2020, and reports differed on exactly where it ranked. Viraj Patel, a global macro strategist at Vanda, said in emailed comments quoted by Yahoo Finance:

"This is what we would call a total capitulation by retail investors."

Vanda said there were "no signs of buying the dip" in individual stocks, though some investors kept buying leveraged funds such as ProShares UltraPro QQQ and Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares.

CNBC's Sarah Min read it differently, writing that the market "has managed to avoid a true capitulation thus far thanks to a buy-the-dip mentality." In the same report, Bob Lang of Explosive Options said the CBOE put/call ratio reached 1.2 on Thursday, double the 0.6 average, and that he would need more readings like it before calling a bottom.

Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets said there that he wants to see the VIX above 30 before he can say there has been a real flush. It closed at 28.18 on Thursday and 25.64 on Friday. In Woods's words: "We're very close to this final capitulation."

After Thursday's close, Stocktwits reported: "Retail sentiment on Stocktwits for SPY, QQQ, and DIA was 'bearish.'" A Friday reading was not available. On X, Gavin Davies asked in a widely viewed post on Friday: "Are we buying stocks today or are we expecting more pain"

What it could mean

Heavy forced selling can exaggerate a decline, and the fall can partly reverse once that selling ends. Very low sentiment has also often come before rebounds. On the other hand, a VIX still under 30 and investors still buying leveraged funds may mean that fear has not yet peaked, which would leave room for another wave of selling.

Was Thursday the capitulation that ends a decline, or only the first real scare?

Payrolls rose 165,000 in October, more than double estimates, and the talk of a December rate hike grew

The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, more than double the estimates. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected 59,000, and other surveys ran as high as about 70,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, against an expected 4.2%.

• Revisions: August and September together revised up by 84,000; September to 60,000 from 29,000
• Three-month average: 137,000 a month
• Hourly wages: +0.4% on the month, +3.1% on the year
• Participation: 61.9%

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance: "Demand for labor is skyrocketing."

Good news that complicates rates

The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28, after raising them in September. The talk now is of another hike at its Dec. 9 decision. Reuters reported that bets on a December hike rose to 78% from 70% soon after the data, an intraday market reading rather than word from the Fed.

The people Reuters reached split on it. Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital Securities pointed to wages: "that just confirms that the Fed has no choice but to raise rates in December." Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading asked: "will the Fed want to raise interest rates in the face of a market which is teetering?"

Tim Holland of Orion said the reports "should make a Fed rate hike more likely and should push up bond yields, headwinds for a stock market that is already struggling with political and policy uncertainty around the AI cap ex cycle."

The 10-year yield rose on Friday to about 4.86% and still fell about 7 basis points for the week.

Consumers

The University of Michigan's sentiment reading rose to 51.0, above the Dow Jones consensus of 47.5. The survey ran from Oct. 20 to Nov. 2, before the vote. Survey director Joanne Hsu said: "AI worries, however, were dwarfed by cost of living concerns, which continue to be at the forefront of consumers' minds across the population."

What it could mean

Strong hiring supports earnings and could ease worries that slower AI spending would hurt the wider economy. It also gives the Fed more room to raise rates, which could weigh on stocks with high valuations and push yields up. Tuesday's inflation report may decide which of those matters more.

Is a strong job market good news for stocks right now, or a reason for the Fed to raise rates again?

AMD jumped 11.04% and chips rebounded on Friday, but the bounce faded amid reports Microsoft plans fewer AI cloud partners

Some investors bought the dip in chip stocks on Friday. AMD rose 11.04% and the PHLX Semiconductor index 4.21%. But the session's highs were much higher than its closes:

• AMD: up as much as 13.70%, closed +11.04%
• Nvidia: up as much as 7.32%, closed +2.78%
• Micron: up as much as 10.42%, closed +5.12%
• Broadcom: up as much as 6.86%, closed +0.74%
• Nasdaq Composite: up as much as 2.10%, closed +1.09%
• S&P 500: up as much as 1.23%, closed +0.31%, just under its open

The bounce was also narrow. While the S&P 500 rose, 318 of its stocks fell and 184 rose, and the median stock lost 0.66%. The Dow fell 237.33 points, and 22 of its 30 stocks fell. Salesforce took about 52 points off the Dow, Travelers about 46, Home Depot about 39 and Microsoft about 32.

The Microsoft reports

Two reports, both citing unnamed people, landed that day. People familiar with the matter told CNBC that Microsoft plans to reduce the number of neocloud partners, the smaller companies that rent out AI computing power. Bloomberg reported that Microsoft has been shutting down rented computing capacity from Oracle after letting a contract lapse. Neither company's confirmation was seen.

CNBC wrote that "Friday's relatively upbeat sentiment was kept in check" after its report. The timing is not clean, though: the big S&P 500 fund SPY hit its high at 9:50 am ET, and CNBC's item on the reports carries a price check from 1:05 pm. Microsoft closed down 0.99% on Friday, and Oracle ended the week down 11.15%.

Separate moves

Airbnb rose 11.67% after raising its forecast. Microchip fell 10.02% after largely disappointing guidance. Coherent rose 13.58%, Vistra 10.55%, and Axon fell 18.18%.

What it could mean

If Microsoft is consolidating partners, the largest cloud companies could gain bargaining power, while smaller rivals that depend on rented capacity and borrowed money may come under more strain. Friday's gains in chips could be the start of a recovery. A rally that fades this quickly, though, could mean that sellers are still waiting for higher prices.

Was Friday the first step of a recovery, or a chance for sellers to get out at better prices?

The twist: 263 S&P 500 stocks rose on the week and 239 fell, even as the index lost 2.68%

The S&P 500 had its worst week since April 2025, and more of its stocks rose than fell: 263 up, 239 down, one unchanged. The median stock gained 0.27%.

That does not mean most stocks did fine. The count is narrow, and the average stock fell 1.16%. The equal-weight fund RSP fell 1.04%, far less than the index, after a record close on Wednesday.

The damage sat in AI, chips and energy. Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre wrote: "The AI trade ran off a cliff Thursday. Most of the stock market was nowhere near the edge." Chipmakers make up about 14% of the index, by Yahoo Finance's count.

Stuart Clark, a portfolio manager at Quilter, said by email, as quoted by CNBC: "With a relatively small number of technology and semiconductor stocks now carrying so much weight, weakness in those names quickly translates into sizeable falls for the Nasdaq and S&P 500."

The sectors

Six of the 11 sector funds fell and five rose:

• Communication services: +4.89%, best week since the week ended Nov. 3, 2023
• Real estate: +1.92%
• Consumer discretionary: +1.91%
• Financials: +1.15%
• Consumer staples: +0.74%
• Health care: -0.04%
• Utilities: -0.69%
• Materials: -1.50%
• Industrials: -2.83%
• Technology: -8.23%, worst since the week ended April 4, 2025, and a fifth straight loss
• Energy: -12.00%, also worst since the week ended April 4, 2025

Day by day, S&P 500 stocks up and down

On three of the five days, the index and most of its stocks went opposite ways:

• Monday: index -0.51%; 346 up, 157 down
• Tuesday: index +0.36%; 190 up, 313 down
• Wednesday: index +1.58%; 376 up, 127 down
• Thursday: index -4.36%; 73 up, 430 down
• Friday: index +0.31%; 184 up, 318 down

What it could mean

Money moving out of a few giant names and into the rest of the market could cushion the index if the rotation lasts, and it may mark a healthier, broader market. It could also mean the index remains hostage to a handful of stocks: if the AI slide deepens, funds built on the S&P 500 would feel it most, and the rest of the market might not stay immune.

Is this a rotation that can hold the market up, or only a pause before the selling spreads to the rest of the market?

AppLovin gained 71.21% on the week and Lumentum lost 35.94%, while the Magnificent Seven split

AppLovin rose 71.21%, the best in the S&P 500. It reported on Nov. 4, with revenue of $2.18 billion against an estimate of $2.07 billion, and rose 31% on Thursday alone, the day the index fell 4.36%.

Lumentum fell 35.94%, the worst in the index. On Monday, when Marvell agreed to buy it in an all-stock deal valued at about $115 billion when announced, Lumentum fell 18.6% and Marvell 12.7%. Marvell ended the week down 28.11%.

Best in the S&P 500

• AppLovin: +71.21%
• Fiserv: +25.71%
• Idexx: +22.65%
• Mosaic: +21.59%
• Airbnb: +15.57%; it raised its forecast, and CEO Brian Chesky said: "Airbnb is back in growth mode"
• First Solar: +15.33%
• Moderna: +14.64%; it reported a strong quarter and raised its sales outlook

Worst in the S&P 500

• Lumentum: -35.94%
• Seagate: -28.48%
• Marvell: -28.11%
• Western Digital: -27.95%
• Sandisk: -27.44%
• Axon: -26.83%
• Fidelity National Information Services: -25.47%
• Microchip: -24.55%
• Ciena: -24.11%
• Datadog: -23.90%

The Magnificent Seven split

Amazon rose 7.88%, Alphabet 1.77% and Microsoft 1.67%, while Apple fell 0.66%, Meta 0.79%, Nvidia 8.80% and Tesla 10.40%.

Nvidia closed at $186.64, just barely up for 2026 and 21.99% below its record, after its fifth straight losing week. AMD gained 11.04% on Friday and still lost 11.05% on the week. Palantir fell 12.89%, Broadcom 9.93% and Oracle 11.15%. Oracle had fallen 8.9% on Monday after filing to raise $20 billion for its AI buildout. SpaceX ended down 0.33%, after falling 9.05% on Thursday and gaining 8.62% on Friday. Berkshire Hathaway's B shares rose 5.24%.

One item from Tesla

Elon Musk wrote on X on Friday: "Tesla will be winding down production of the Cybertruck at Gigafactory Texas around the middle of next year to make room for increased Cybercab production."

What it could mean

A week when one name gains 71% and several hardware names lose more than a quarter of their value may suggest investors are separating winners from losers, not leaving technology altogether. That could favor companies showing revenue now over those still spending to build. It could also reverse fast: a stock up this much is exposed to profit taking, and beaten-down hardware names could stage sharp rebounds.

Are investors picking new winners, or simply chasing last week's moves?

Energy was the week's worst sector, down 12%, as oil lost about 13% on hopes the Iran war could wind down

The week's worst sector was energy, not technology. The Energy Select Sector fund (XLE) fell 12.00%, its worst week since the week ended April 4, 2025. Exxon fell 11.42% and Chevron 9.73%.

The drop tracked oil. WTI crude ended about $91 and Brent about $98, little changed on Friday and each down about 13% for the week. Two sessions did most of it: WTI fell 7.36% on Monday and 8.29% on Wednesday, and Brent fell 7.63% and 8.67%.

Prices fell on hopes among investors that a resolution in the Middle East could be reached, and that the Democrats' midterm wins could give the party leverage to press President Trump toward ending the war. Oil fell about 8% on Wednesday after Vice President JD Vance said on social media: "The reason we lost is the war."

There is no deal

Bob McNally, CEO of Rapidan Energy Group, argued the opposite on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." McNally put the odds of "a resumption of military fighting" at 80% and expects both benchmarks to rise above $100 a barrel. These are one analyst's odds. The reasoning:

"The Iranian regime, on the other hand, is not willing to do it. And as long as that core difference in that deal space is absent, the escalation dynamic remains in place."

CBS News' live updates early on Saturday, New York time, showed no deal and no major resumption of fighting. President Trump confirmed minor strikes and said a decision on new strikes would come soon.

The other side of cheap oil

Lower oil matters well beyond oil companies. Brian Jacobsen of Annex Wealth Management, in comments carried by Reuters: "Lower oil prices, lower gasoline prices, lower inflation, and less pressure on the Fed to hike could help so many areas of the economy that an AI datacenter buildout slowdown might end up not being the growth killer so many people think it could be."

What it could mean

If the war winds down, oil could fall further, which would ease inflation and the pressure for a rate hike, and could help consumers and airlines while hurting energy producers. If fighting resumes, oil could jump, energy stocks could recover quickly, and rate-hike worries could return.

Has the market priced in a peace that has not yet happened?

Breakdown or bounce: Jim Cramer called Friday a dead cat bounce; Yardeni Research called Thursday's selloff a buying opportunity

The Street ended the week divided.

The worried camp

Jim Cramer, on CNBC's "Mad Money" on Friday, about that day's session:

"I didn't feel that any numbers in tech were too low. I felt like it was a dead cat bounce."

Cramer said he does not think the decline has run its course, though he also said he might buy some Cisco if the coming neocloud reports go well.

Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets, quoted by CNBC: "What I look for is this to continue over the next few days, maybe another week, before we hit a bottom." Rich Bernstein of Janus Henderson, on Yahoo Finance's "Market Domination," compared the AI run to a cartoon coyote: "You're running full speed, and then you realize that there's nothing anymore, and you fall to the bottom of the canyon."

The patient camp

Yardeni Research wrote in a Friday note to clients, reported by Yahoo Finance:

"We view the political backlash as another constraint on AI investment, alongside financial and physical bottlenecks. But these are speed bumps, not roadblocks, even though Wall Street seems to be pricing in the latter."

The firm added, "We think that's overdone," called Thursday's selloff a "buying opportunity" and kept its year-end target of 7,900 on the S&P 500.

Chris Grisanti of MAI Capital Management, quoted by CNBC: "I don't think we're at the bottom, but I think you can see it from here." Mohamed El-Erian, on CNBC on Thursday, as reported by Stocktwits: "I think the market is overdoing it." William de Gale of Blue Box Asset Management told CNBC: "The demand is insatiable, and the demand outside AI is pretty much insatiable as well."

What history shows, on average

Cboe data reported by Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi counts eight earlier VIX jumps of this size since 1991. On average, the S&P 500 was up 3.0% a month later (7 of 8 times) and 14.7% a year later (7 of 8). CNBC says tech stocks often find their footing three to six months after a Nasdaq correction, but that trading can stay rocky in the near term. These are averages, not forecasts.

What it could mean

Very high fear has often come before recoveries, and a fall that Bank of America ties to valuations rather than earnings estimates could reverse faster. That is the patient camp's case. The worried camp's case is that a thin bounce, with most stocks lower, may mean sellers are still waiting, and that a fresh shock could test the lows.

Is this the start of a breakdown, or the setup for a bounce?

Next week: Constellation on Monday, October inflation and CoreWeave on Tuesday, Cisco and Applied Materials on Thursday

Times are Eastern. Earnings dates come from company notices and calendars and may change.

• Monday, Nov. 9: Constellation Energy, expected before the open. Occidental, KKR and NRG also report; Take-Two and Skydance report after the close.
• Tuesday, Nov. 10: October CPI at 8:30 am. CoreWeave after the close, with its call at 5:00 pm.
• Wednesday, Nov. 11: Veterans Day. Stocks trade and the bond market is closed.
• Thursday, Nov. 12: Nebius in the morning; jobless claims at 8:30 am; existing home sales at 10:00 am. Cisco and Applied Materials after the close.
• Friday, Nov. 13: October PPI at 8:30 am.

What Jim Cramer is watching

On Constellation, Cramer said on "Mad Money" that if the company slows plans to build power stations, "the data center stocks could see a fresh wave of selling."

On inflation, the early FactSet average reported by CNBC has CPI up 3.9% on the year, against 3.7% in the prior reading, with core inflation cooler on the month. Cramer said: "We need a surprise number, one that's dramatically lower than expected. Although, I don't think that's likely."

On CoreWeave, which fell 15.44% this week and gained 6.28% on Friday: "The cost of their debt is now sky high, too high. Can they explain how they can pay it off?"

Further out

• Nvidia reports later this month; the calendars disagree on the date.
• The Fed's next decision comes Dec. 9, with the talk of a hike.
• Anthropic's IPO is widely expected before the end of the month and could slip, Yahoo Finance reported. Citing Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal, it said investors are eyeing a valuation of $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion, against $2 trillion projected last month. These are reports, not company statements.
• Washington: CNBC says the fight over Iran war spending could result in a government shutdown before the year is out.
• Iran: no decision was known as of this writing.

What it could mean

A cooler inflation report could ease the December hike talk and support stocks with high valuations, while a hot one could lift yields and add pressure. A clear plan from CoreWeave on its debt may calm worries about how the AI buildout is financed; a weak one could spread those worries to other neoclouds and to chipmakers that depend on their orders.

Which matters more for the next leg of this market: Tuesday morning's inflation number or Tuesday evening's CoreWeave report?